Fall Candidate Numbers Off

But GOP surpasses most recent years

The slate of legislative candi­dates for forthcoming state elec­tions is now set.  The 2014 cam­paign features fewer candidates (246) than 2010 (314) or 2012 (297)–indeed the fewest since 2006 (243). Numbers are particu­larly down for the assembly (208 vs. 273 in 2010 and 261 in 2012).
Of 116 legislative races, 40 feature only one candidate, and 55 feature only one major party candidate.

Could it be that future state tax and spending decisions are signifi­cantly impacted by the "dog days" of summer in a non-budget year when the legislature is not in ses­sion? Quite likely. 

State legislative candidates have already filed nomination papers, and August partisan primary elec­tions are just around the corner. Combined, the two determine a sur­prising number of the lawmakers who will make fiscal policy as part of the 2015-17 state budget.

2014: Diminished choice

Of 116 state senate ( 17) and as­sembly (99) seats on this Novem­ber's ballot, 40–more than one­ third–are uncontested.  Almost all are in the lower house (38), and 23 of them will be Republican.

The lack of electoral choice in­creases if districts with no contest be­tween major party candidates are in­cluded.  Close to half of legislative candidates (55, or 47%)–25 Democrats and 30 Republicans–are virtually assured election. Since the two parties have crafted state law to their advantage, election of write-in, third-party, or independent candidates is difficult at best,as history readily confirms.

In the assembly, 52 of the 99 dis­tricts–over half–offer no general election choice between the two main parties.  Since 29 of those have only Republican candidates, the GOP is almost 60% of the way toward a third 'consecutive session in control.

Less candidate interest, too

The value of mere party nomination  in an "off year appears to be espe­cially significant in 2014.  Comparing nomination paper activity since 2000
shows how this election year differs from prior ones (see table below).

Candidates by house. The total number of candidates in 2014 is down from the prior two elections: 246 vs. 314 in 2010 and 297 in 2012.  It is also among the lowest number over the eight elections; 2000 (238) and 2006 (243) were marginally lower.

The same pattern holds for state as­sembly seats: 208 candidates is markedly fewer than the previous three elections and approaches the lows of2000 (203) and 2006 (207).   At 38, the count of state senate candi­dates is less than in the last guberna­torial year (2010) but on par or slightly above other years shown .

• Candidates by party. By political affiliation, the number of Republican candidates (133) is lower than in 2010 (171) but higher than in other years dating back to 2000. The number of Democratic candidates is off from two years ago (104 vs. 164) and be­low all other elections beginning in 2000, except 2002 (102).

A similar pattern holds for indepen­dent and minor party candidates. This year, they number 'nine. tieing the decade low in 2006.  Four years ago, the number of such candidates was a robust 26.  The count was also noticeably higher in 2002 and 2004 (both 20).  

Bailing out
Number of retiring lawmakers unusually high

What makes smaller candidate counts this year even more surpris­ing is the unusually large number of retiring law-makers (29 of 117, or one-fourth). In the senate, seven (41 %) of 17 senators up for election this year are stepping down, three Democrats and four Republicans. Conventional wis­dom is that the 18-15 GOP major­ity in the upper house could move up or down by a seat but probably not much more.

More.than one.in five (22 of 99) assembly members are also stepping down. Republicans (15) retiring out­number Democrats (7) by more than two-to-one. Typically, these "open" seats would expand the field of aspi­rants; however totals are off.   Despite 22 leaving the lower chamber, 42 face no major-party opposition in Novem­ber.

Reading the tea leaves

That GOP candidate totals (133) surpass most recent years but not 2010 (171) suggests a favorable envi­ronment for the party in 2014 but not the wave they enjoyed in 2010. Whether historically low Democratic numbers mean party discouragement or reflect a strategy of electoral focus remains to be seen.

                                                  State Tax Rankings:
                                                Digging a Little Deeper

State and local tax burdens are fre­quently compared and ranked, but the proverbial devil is often in the details.
For example, at $20,000 of in­come, a family of four in Wisconsin had the 33rd highest income tax load in the U.S., but at $75,000 that bur­den was seventh highest. Similarly, an owner of a $150,000 house in Milwaukee paid $3,846 in 2012 property taxes, fourth highest among large cities across the nation, while a Rice Lake owner paid $3,229, seventh highest relative to other small-town homeowners.

                                                       Pension Funding

Wisconsin is one of 14 states with a "sound" pension system. State pension systems are considered "sound" if they have a funded ratio (the measure of a state's ability to meet its future pension payout obli­gations) of 80% or higher. Of sur­rounding states, Iowa is the only other with a sound system. Min­nesota's funding ratio falls in the 70 - 79% range, while Michigan's system is less than 70% funded.

Nine states, including Illinois, have pension systems that are less than 60% funded' lllinois has the largest unfunded pension liability in the country, totaling $100 billion in 2012. Lawmakers have since over­hauled the Illinois system and hope the system is fully funded by 2044. The plan, which cut retirees' annual cost-of-living increases and raised the retirement age for workers 45 and younger, is being challenged by unions in court.

                                                A Closer Look at Public Debt
                                                   How is Wisconsin Doing?

While federal debt continues to climb, Wisconsin's is showing some signs of improvement. Combined state-local debt grew 0.3% in 2013, its since 2008. State debt here to­taled $13.7 billion, up 1.6% from 2012. Local debt fell 1.0% to $13.7 billion, its second consecutive de­cline. School, county, village, and town debt all declined last year.

                                                   Cigarette Smuggling Rises

Wisconsin ranked fifth among the states for cigarette smuggling in 2012 vs. 18th in 2006. Smuggled cigarettes accounted for 34.6% of cigarette consumption here, up from 13.1 % in 2006. Wisconsin's cigarette tax increased from $0.77 to $2.52 per pack during 2006-12.

Wisconsin is one of twelve states in which smuggling accounts for greater than one quarter of cigarette consumption. New York (56.9%) had the highest rate, followed by Arizona (51.5%), New Mexico (48.1%), and Washington (48.0%).

States with the most smuggling tend to tax cigarettes more heavily than their neighbors. New York charges $4.35 per pack, while neighboring Pennsylvania's tax is $1.60. The cigarette tax in Wisconsin is $2.52 per pack, more than twice illinois' ($0.98).

Sources for these articles
Wisconsin Taxpayers Alliance
National Conference of State Legislatures
Tax Foundation